Friday, July 24, 2009

population Myth?

Today I came across Amit Verma's column in Mint written in 2007. He contended that Population Explosion's predicted harmful effect on our future is myth. He based his contention on Eberstadt study,which postulates that Monaco's population density is more than that of Bangladesh but Monaco is rich country. Sure but what is the size of Monaco ? .What is it's total population? It is 1.95 country with population of 32,000. its population is mainly migratory rich french and other International rich.
Well, problem here is that of timeline. Harmful effect of too many people will not be evident in year or two. It may take one or Two Centuries to get there and eventually wont happen because people understand the problem and limit their family size.With spread of education and better living condition only Religious beliefs prevent people from having fewer children. In less than 100 yrs. this change is seen in India. From average 4-6 children two generation ago, now average number of children most couple have is 2-3. Just look around in any major city in India.
The problem is easy to understand as we feel the effect of increase in population of our Metros-Mumbai,Delhi. All the services are deficient. Yes not efficient but even efficient administration will find providing Water,Electricity,Roads,Hospitals,School ad Higher education to its rapidly increasing population a difficult,almost impossible task. In the process of providing the basic necessity we pollute our environment,wipe out species after species,Rain forests,Savannas and cause global warming which in turn exacerbates the problem.
What is true for a Metro City is true for State,Nation and World. Only it will take much longer to affect Nation and World. Fortunately we have already taken corrective steps. If you want to give an example than I would suggest that China would not be Economic powerhouse had She not implemented one Child norm. But then this is hypothetical.
I would venture to say that large population as a Great Human resource is bigger myth. there is nothing to support this hypothesis. it was postulated during this economic bubble period. China officially agrees but quietly implements One Child norm by force.
BTW, Whats wrong with having less(1 or 2) Children? They don't ask you not to have Sex.!

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